Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Thanksgiving Week 2013 Weather Forecast

Headline: 
Dry and cold in the Heartland, Major storm along the East Coast to impact travel.


Lincoln:
Remaining dry through the end of the upcoming Thanksgiving weekend with a 0% chance of precipitation.  Temperatures colder than normal are expected, but warming to above normal by the weekend.  Normal highs/lows this time of year are low 40's and low 20's. 
    

East Coast Winter Storm:
A major winter storm is taking shape and will significantly impact travel from the southeastern U.S. up into New England.  Snowfall amounts could exceed 12 inches along the Appalachian mountains into Ontario and Quebec in Canada.  Fortunately, the temperatures will be too warm for snow to reach the coastal population corridor from Boston to New York City and Washington D.C.   Heavy rain, in excess of 2 to 3 inches, will impact the coastal region northeastward from Washington, D.C.  Note the forecast below for New York City showing that the storm will clear that region by Thanksgiving morning.






A look Ahead:
A major cold wave is likely toward the end of next week.  Precipitation is also likely when the cold Arctic air arrives so this is our potential first "plowable" snowfall.  It is still too early to estimate potential snowfall amounts for the area but there is high confidence that the weather pattern will bring us our first real winter weather by the end of next week.  Precipitation is more difficult to forecast ahead of time than temperature.  Airmasses control the temperatures and the airmass will cover the entire region.  However, the band of snowfall is limited in its size and controlled by the availability of moisture arriving int he region.  The exact location of the snowfall in Nebraska and the intensity of snowfall can't be accurately forecast this far ahead of time.  This extended outlook is provided as a "heads up" outlook for a potential snowfall in our area and does not have the confidence that we have in forecasting the onslaught of Arctic air at the end of next week






The following forecast map shows the weather for 06UTC December 7 (or midnight CST December 6).  The areas in green show where precipitation could be occurring.  The furthest south blue line is 0C (32F). The next blue line north is -10C (+14F). The air mass in southern Canada is colder than -30C (-22 F) and sliding southward into the Plains.

The following forecast map shows the weather for 06UTC December 10 (or midnight CST December 9).  The areas in green show where precipitation could be occurring.  The furthest south blue line is 0C (32F). The next blue line north is -10C (+14F). 

Related link:  Lincoln Weather and Climate


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