Lincoln, NE, July-August 2012, Driest on Record

Lincoln, NE, Drought Update, August 31, 2012

July 2012, 2nd Driest on Record:

July 2012, with only 0.33 inches of precipitation, was the 2nd driest July on record in Lincoln, NE, with 126 years of data.  This is in stark contrast with the largest observed July precipitation of 12.50 inches in 1993.  See the table below.

August 2012, 2nd Driest on Record:

August 2012, with only 0.30 inches of precipitation, was the 2nd driest August on record in Lincoln, NE, with 126 years of data.. This is in stark contrast with the largest observed August precipitation of 13.98 inches in 1910. See the table below.

July and August Combined, Driest on Record:

The total precipitation in Lincoln, NE during July 1 - August 31, 2012 was only 0.63 inches.  This is the driest on record for that time period in Lincoln, with 126 years of data. This is in stark contrast with the largest observed July-August combined precipitation of 17.01 inches in 1910.  See the table below.

HPRCC Map showing the July-August Percent of Normal Precipitation

 July-August Percent of Normal Precipitation in the High Plains

July: Top Ten Driest and Wettest Months

Driest Year	Amount in Inches	Rank
1936	0.08	1
2012	0.33	2
1983	0.37	3
1919	0.38	4
1934	0.40	5
1974	0.46	6
1941	0.56	6
1917	0.56	8
1955	0.61	9
1942	0.63	10

Wettest Year	Amount in Inches	Rank
1993	12.50	1
1958	11.40	2
1902	11.35	3
1891	8.74	4
1908	8.08	5
1990	7.35	6
1985	6.93	7
1906	6.85	8
1915	6.74	9
1900	6.66	10

August: Top Ten Driest and Wettest Months

Driest Year	Amount in Inches	Rank
1976	0.07	1
2012	0.30	2
1913	0.31	3
1894	0.45	4
1955	0.55	5
1941	0.67	6
1922	0.69	7
1973	0.75	8
1918	0.77	9
1929	0.92	10

Wettest Year	Amount in Inches	Rank
1910	13.98	1
1954	10.14	2
1900	9.07	3
1982	8.57	4
2002	8.29	5
1977	7.48	6
2011	6.89	7
1916	6.70	8
1905	6.45	8
1903	6.45	10

July and August Combined: Top Ten Driest and Wettest Months

Driest Year	Amount in Inches	Rank
2012	0.63	1
1955	1.16	2
1941	1.23	3
1983	1.54	4
1894	1.56	5
1936	1.71	6
1913	2.26	7
2003	2.50	8
1942	2.69	9
2001	2.75	10
1942	2.75	10

Wettest Year	Amount in Inches	Rank
1910	17.01	1
1993	16.82	2
1900	15.73	3
1902	15.70	4
1958	14.26	5
1954	13.34	6
1982	12.62	7
1915	12.31	8
1962	11.54	9
1977	11.23	10

August 29, 2012 Another Record Breaking Hot Day Across the Plains

August 29, 2012 Another Record Breaking Hot Day Across the Plains

 

Records in Nebraska include: Valentine, 108F; Chadron, 104F; McCook, 103F; Ogallala, 103F; North Platte, 103F; Norfolk, 102F; Alliance, 101F; Omaha, 98F. Lincoln's 98F was 3 deg. shy of the record of 101F.  Records in South Dakota include: Winner, 112F; Rapid City, 107F; Murdo, 107F; Mobridge, 106F; Milesville, 103F; Hot Springs, 103F; Lemmon, 101F.

 

There were 63 record high temperatures across the U.S. on August 29, 2012

Many of the record high temperatures were concentrated in
Nebraska and in SD, MT, WY and CO

A map showing the very hot interior U.S.

NWS map of yesterday's high temperatures.
Note the 98F in Manitoba, Canada and 90's well
north into Canada.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent: The Last 1,450 Years

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Over the Last 1,450 Years

As of August 26, Arctic sea ice appears to have broken the 2007 record for smallest daily extent of the satellite era. Arctic sea ice extent fell to 1.58 million square miles on August 26, 2012. This was 27,000 square miles (slightly bigger than the state of West Virginia) below the previous record low of 1.61 million square miles, set in September 2007.

The satellite record extends back only to the 1970's. However, we can, using other data, extend the ice coverage data back over 1,400 years as noted in the following graph.
LINK: http://ac.blog.sme.sk/c/306419/Arkticky-rekord-padol.html)
And, LINK:  http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v479/n7374/full/nature10581.html

This puts the modern plunge in Arctic sea ice coverage in a longer historical perspective and clearly shows how dramatic this decrease has been during the last few years

Rainfall Returns to Nebraska, Aug. 25, 2012

August 25, 2012 Rainfall in Eastern Nebraska

 

The above two maps are radar estimated precipitation totals for the U.S. and the Nebraska region.

Rainfall on Saturday August 25, 2012 in Lincoln (at the official Airport measuring site) was only 0.05 inches).  There were two areas of much heavier precipitation, one stretching from central Nebraska to Northeast Nebraska and the other across Northeast Kansas into far Southeast Nebraska into Southwest Iowa.  The heaviest radar indicated precipitation totals exceeded 2 to 4 inches (darker green colors on the maps).  

 

The actual observed precipitation totals are listed below for two time periods, 7am Friday to Saturday 7am, and then 7am Saturday to 7am Sunday.  Note the huge totals at Falls City in far southeast Nebraska of 4.15 inches and 0.74 inches for a storm total of 5.99 inches.  Lincoln, NE had 0.05 inches and 0.13 inches for a storm total of only 0.18 inches.

 

Precipitation Totals (in inches)

7am Saturday, August 25, 2012 

to 7am Sunday August 26, 2012

AINSWORTH AIRPORT	0.00
ALBION AIRPORT	0.00
ALLIANCE	0.00
AURORA AIRPORT	1.10
BEATRICE AIRPORT	0.23
BLAIR AIRPORT	0.70
BROKEN BOW AIRPORT	T
CHADRON	0.00
COLUMBUS AIRPORT	0.06
FALLS CITY AIRPORT	4.15
FREMONT AIRPORT	0.70
GRAND ISLAND ARPT	0.36
HASTINGS AIRPORT	1.23
HEBRON AIRPORT	0.24
HOLDREGE AIRPORT	T
IMPERIAL AIRPORT	0.00
KEARNEY AIRPORT	0.67
KIMBALL AIRPORT	0.00
LEXINGTON AIRPORT	0.07
LINCOLN AIRPORT	0.05
MCCOOK AIRPORT	0.00
NEBRASKA CITY ARPT	1.26
NORFOLK AIRPORT	0.00
NORTH PLATTE ARPT	T
OFFUTT AFB	0.29
OGALLALA AIRPORT	0.00
OMAHA/EPPLEY	0.21
OMAHA/MILLARD	0.05
O`NEILL AIRPORT	0.00
ORD AIRPORT	0.01
PLATTSMOUTH ARPT	0.29
SCOTTSBLUFF	0.00
SIDNEY	0.00
TEKAMAH AIRPORT	0.43
THEDFORD AIRPORT	0.00
VALENTINE AIRPORT	0.00
VALLEY NWS OFFICE	1.79
WAHOO AIRPORT	0.56
WAYNE AIRPORT	0.00
YORK AIRPORT Precipitation Totals (in inches) 7am Friday, August 24, 2012 to 7am Saturday, August 25, 2012 AINSWORTH AIRPORT 0.00 ALBION AIRPORT 0.00 ALLIANCE                T AURORA AIRPORT 0.01 BEATRICE AIRPORT 0.13 BLAIR AIRPORT 0.37 BROKEN BOW AIRPORT 0.00 CHADRON 0.00 COLUMBUS AIRPORT                T FALLS CITY AIRPORT 0.74 FREMONT AIRPORT 0.28 GRAND ISLAND ARPT 0.01 HASTINGS AIRPORT 0.02 HEBRON AIRPORT 0.07 HOLDREGE AIRPORT 0.05 IMPERIAL AIRPORT 0.00 KEARNEY AIRPORT 0.00 KIMBALL AIRPORT 0.00 LEXINGTON AIRPORT 0.00 LINCOLN AIRPORT 0.13 MCCOOK AIRPORT 0.00 NEBRASKA CITY ARPT 0.24 NORFOLK AIRPORT 0.04 NORTH PLATTE ARPT 0.00 OFFUTT AFB 0.10 OGALLALA AIRPORT 0.00 OMAHA/EPPLEY 0.46 OMAHA/MILLARD 0.11 O`NEILL AIRPORT 0.00 ORD AIRPORT 0.00 PLATTSMOUTH ARPT 0.39 SCOTTSBLUFF 0.00 SIDNEY 0.00 TEKAMAH AIRPORT 0.62 THEDFORD AIRPORT 0.00 VALENTINE AIRPORT 0.00 VALLEY NWS OFFICE 0.35 WAHOO AIRPORT 0.20 WAYNE AIRPORT 0.05 YORK AIRPORT                T

 

 

 

August 24, 2012: Rain Returns to Lincoln, NE

August 24, 2012:  Rain Finally Returns to Lincoln, Nebraska. 

 Radar from this morning.  Lincoln was on the northern edge of a large area of rainfall.

Starting with the first full day of astronomical Summer, June 21, 2012, through yesterday, August 23, 2012, it had only rained on 6 days in Lincoln, NE.  Normal for this time period is 18 days.  The total precipitation of 0.14 inches during this time period was the 2nd lowest on record (127 years of data).  Only 1936, with a total of only 1.06 inches, experienced drier conditions for this time period.  Normal rainfall for this time period is 7.37 inches.

Lincoln, NE, Observed Precipitation
(June 21-August 23, 2012):

June 23:   0.69 inches

July 25:   0.06 inches

July 26:   0.25 inches

July 30:   0.02 inches

August 2:  0.11 inches

August 11: 0.01 inches

TOTAL =    1.14 inches 

 Lincoln, NE, August 24, 2012.

Arctic Sea Ice Is at Record Low

From:  https://www.facebook.com/TheEarthStory
Satellite data analyzed by the US National Snow and Ice Data Center, has shown that the extent of Arctic sea-ice is looking to reach a record minimum this Summer. The latest data suggests that Arctic Summer Sea-Ice is already 483,000 sq km below the previous record low (set in 2007).   The ice is expected to continue to melt until mid September.

So what is Sea Ice Extent?
Sea Ice extent is defined as the area of the Arctic sea that contains some Sea Ice. Areas with less than 15% Sea Ice are defined as marking the edge of the ice.

So why is the melt this year so high?
Some sea-ice melts every Summer, as part of a natural process. This year several large storms increased the rate of melting to double over a few days. However the general trend over the last few years has been increased melting of Arctic Sea Ice. Aside from isolated events such as the storms increasing the rate of melt, there are several theories as to why the melt amount is increasing each year. Anthropogenic emissions speeding global Climate change is one such theory, and Natural Cycles are another.

Why is the Arctic Sea Ice Important?
The Arctic Sea Ice helps to control global Environment. The colour of the ice surface relfects around 80% of sunlight reaching the Northern Pole area back into space , and the more the Sea Ice Melts, the more energy from the Sun is absorbed into the Arctic Ocean, driving chemical changes which are harmful to the ecology of the Ocean (which in turn can have global repercussions).

August 21, 2012: Drought Update, Lincoln, NE.

August 21, 2012:  Drought Update, Lincoln, NE.

The above photos from today show some of the trees in Lincoln exhibiting drought stress with brown leaves. Also note the brown lawns.

Total Lincoln precipitation since January 1 = 13.66 inches.

This is the 15th driest on record for year to date (127 years of data).

Greatest January 1-August 20 precipitation = 31.44 inches in 1951.
Least January 1-August 20 precipitation = 6.80 inches in 1934.

When looking at the July 1 through August 20, 2012 time period, Lincoln has had only 0.45 inches of precipitation and this is the driest on record for that time period.  Note the top five driest July 1 through August time periods listed below (Value is total precipitation in inches).

Rank  Value  Ending Date (starting date is July 1 each year)
  1    0.45    8/20/2012
  2    0.72    8/20/1936
  3    0.83    8/20/1941
  4    0.93    8/20/1955
  5    1.04    8/20/1983

July 1-August 19, 2012 Driest on Record for Lincoln, NE

Has it seemed very dry to you this Summer in Lincoln and eastern Nebraska? 

It has been the driest ever for the time period July 1-August 19, 2012,
with data extending back to 1887 (126 years).

It has been the 2nd driest on record for the time period June 21-August 19, 2012

Lowest Total Precipitation inches
Days: July 1 through August 19, 2012
Length of period: 50 days
Years: 1887-2012

Rank  Value  Ending Date
  1    0.45    8/19/2012
  2    0.52    8/19/1983
  3    0.56    8/19/1936
  4    0.83    8/19/1941
  5    0.93    8/19/1955
  6    1.31    8/19/1887
  7    1.56    8/19/1894
  8    1.57    8/19/1934
  9    1.78    8/19/1984
10    1.90    8/19/1942

Lowest Total Precipitation inches
Days: June 21 through August 19, 2012
Length of period: 60 days
Years: 1850-2012

Rank  Value  Ending Date
  1    0.71    8/19/1936
  2    1.14    8/19/2012
  3    1.50    8/19/1941
  4    1.51    8/19/1887
  5    1.99    8/19/1984
  6    2.26    8/19/1934
  7    2.41    8/19/2001
  8    2.47    8/19/1942
  9    2.82    8/19/1913
10    3.09    8/19/2003

Lincoln, NE, Record Low Temperatures August 16-17, 2012

The above map shows the observed low temperatures
for Friday, August 17, 2012. 

What a huge change from the earlier stretch of very hot record breaking heat across our region.

Note the low 40's observed in Nebraska  and upper 30's in North Dakota and South Dakota. 

A below freezing 31F was observed in southern Manitoba, Canada.

Lincoln records:
Record low temperature tied on August 16, 2012: 49 F, first set in 1897

Record low temperature on August 17, 2012: 44 F, Old record was 46 F set in 1943.

The above map is the forecast for August 23-27 and shows a continuation of cooler than normal temperatures for the Nebraska.  Longer range computer models show this current cooler than normal pattern to break down by the end of the month with a return to above normal temperatures for our region.



El Niño - La Niña Update - Forecast, August 2012

It appears that an El Niño is in the process of developing in the pacific Ocean.  Although there are many factors that influence weather and climate, El Niño  has a significant influence.  It is anticipate that it will be a weak to at most moderate El Niño so the impact on weather in Nebraska this winter will be somewhat limited.  Any value above 0.5 on the scale (left axis) is considered an El Niño.  Approximately 80% of the computer modesls area forecasting an El Niño  and 20% of the models are forecasting "neutral condition (i.e. neither El Niño  or La Niña )

Look for a forecast (outlook) for our winter weather in a later post at the Climate Corner.

Here is the summary found at the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society.

Synopsis: El Niño conditions likely to develop during August or September 2012.
ENSO-neutral conditions continued during July 2012 despite above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern Pacific Ocean (Figure 1). Reflecting this warmth, most of the weekly Niño index values remained near or greater than +0.5C (Figure 2). The oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) also remained elevated during the month (Figure 3), consistent with a large region of above-average temperatures at depth across the equatorial Pacific (Figure 4). Although sub-surface and surface temperatures were above average, many aspects of the tropical atmosphere were inconsistent with El Niño conditions. Upper-level and low-level trade winds were near average along the equator, while tropical convection remained enhanced over Indonesia (Figure 5). However, convection increased near and just west of the International Date Line, which may eventually reflect a progression towards El Niño. The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions.
Nearly all of the dynamical models favor the onset of El Niño beginning in July-September 2012 (Figure 6). As in previous months, several statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions through the remainder of the year, but the average statistical forecast of Niño-3.4 increased compared to last month. Supported by model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, there is increased confidence for a weak-to-moderate El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2012-13. El Niño conditions are likely to develop during August or September 2012.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niño are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin.

July 2012 Global Temperatures 4th Warmest on Record

FROM:  NOAA/NCDC:

             According to NOAA scientists, the globally-averaged temperature for July 2012 marked the fourth warmest July since record keeping began in 1880. It also marked the 36^th consecutive July and 329^th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20^th century average.
            Most areas of the world experienced higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of the United States and Canada. Meanwhile, Australia, northern and western Europe, eastern Russia, Alaska, and southern South America were notably cooler than average. In the Arctic, sea ice extent averaged 3.1 million square miles, resulting in the second lowest July sea ice extent on record.

Global Highlights

• The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2012 was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F). This is the fourth warmest July since records began in 1880.
• The globally-averaged land surface temperature for July 2012 was the third warmest July on record, at 0.92°C (1.66°F) above average.
• The Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature for July 2012 was the all-time warmest July on record, at 1.19°C (2.14°F) above average.
• ENSO-neutral conditions continued in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during July 2012 as sea surface temperature anomalies in that region continued to rise. The average July worldwide ocean surface temperature ranked as the seventh warmest July on record.
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for January–July 2012 was the 10^th warmest such period on record, at 0.53°C (0.95°F) above the 20^th century average.

Arctic Sea Ice Cover Approaching A Record Low

From the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC):
Arctic sea ice extent during the first two weeks of August continued to track below 2007 record low daily ice extents. As of August 13, 2012, ice extent was already among the four lowest summer minimum extents in the satellite record, with about five weeks still remaining in the melt season. Sea ice extent dropped rapidly between August 4 and August 8.

Arctic sea ice extent on August 13, 2012, was 4.90 million square kilometers (1.9 million square miles). This is 2.81 million square kilometers (1.08 million square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average extent for the date, and is 450,000 square kilometers (173,745 square miles) below the previous record low for the date, which occurred in 2007. Low extent for the Arctic as a whole is driven by extensive open water on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, the Beaufort Sea, and—due to rapid ice loss over the past two weeks—the East Siberian Sea

Lincoln, NE, Days with Temps 100° or higher

Attached is the updated 100° Day map for June 1 thru August 13, 2012  showing the number of days with temperatures  100° or higher.  This map was produced by the USDA and the data are preliminary and subject to final quality control by the National Climatic Data Center.

Lincoln Annual Total Number of Days with Temperatures of 100° or Higher.

Data record: 1887 through 2012 (126 years)

> 2012: 15 days with temperatures of 100° or higher. 

> 1936: 41 days with temperatures of 100° or higher (most ever observed).

> Average:  6 days with temperatures of 100° or higher

> Top 17 years:  Number of days with temperatures of 100° or higher
              1936:  41 days; 1934:  39 days; 1913:  29 days; 1901:  25 days; 1947:  22 days;
              1974:  20 days; 1935 and 1940:  19 days; 1980 and 1968:  18 days;
               1983, 1930, and  1918: 17 days; 1937: 16 days; 2012, 1931 and 1911:  15 days.

Omaha Annual Total Number of Days with Temperatures of 100° or Higher.

Data record: 1871 through 2012 (142 years)

> 2012: 11 days with temperatures of 100° or higher.

> 1936: 30 days with temperatures of 100° or higher (most ever observed).

> Average: 3 days with temperatures of 100° or higher
Top 10 years: Number of days with temperatures of 100° or higher
              1936:  30 days; 1934:  26 days; 1913: 19 days; 1974 and 1901: 15 days;
              1930:  14 days; 1954 and 1931:  13 days; 2012 and 1975: 11 days; 

 

              

Lincoln Warmest Year on Record Update: Aug. 14, 2012

Is Lincoln, NE, still ranked #1, warmest year on record?

NO.  As of yesterday, August 13, 2012 we fell to 2nd place behind 1934.
Here are the top ten warmest January 1-August 13 time periods.
Data record is 1887-2012, and "Value" is the average temperature for the time period in deg. F.

Rank  Value  Ending Date
  1    58.2    8/13/1934
  2    58.1    8/13/2012
  3    56.8    8/13/1921
  4    56.6    8/13/1987
  5    56.1    8/13/2006
  6    55.5    8/13/1946
  7    55.4    8/13/1931
  8    55.3    8/13/1939
  9    55.2    8/13/2000
10    55.1    8/13/1938,  8/13/1933

Omaha, NE,  however is still experiencing its warmest year on record.
Here are the top 5 warmest January 1-August 13 time periods for Omaha.
Data record is 1871-2012, and "Value" is the average temperature for the time period in deg. F.
Rank  Value  Ending Date
  1    59.3    8/13/2012
  2    57.7    8/13/1934
  3    56.9    8/13/1921
  4    56.3    8/13/1987
  5    56.0    8/13/2006

January-July 2012 Hottest on Record for the U.S.

January - July, 2012 was HOTTEST on record for the U.S.

How can 2012 be warmer than 1934 and 1936?  The Winters were near to below normal on either side of those extremely hot summers  The winter of 2011-12 was very warm as was the Spring of 2012.  Here are the highlights of the "year to date" climate of the U.S.

Climate Highlights — Year-to-Date (January-July) - - from NOAA/NCDC

The January-July 2012 period was the warmest first seven months of any year on record for the contiguous United States. The national temperature of 56.4°F was 4.3°F above the long-term average. Most of the contiguous U.S. was record and near-record warm for the seven-month period, except the Pacific Northwest which was near average.

July 2012 Statewide Temperature Rankings

July 2012 was the Warmest July on Record for the U.S.

If it seemed unusually hot across much of the U.S. to you, it was in fact very hot.  How hot?  The hottest on record with 118 years of data for comparison (1895-2012).  Nebraska experienced its 114th coldest or 5th warmest July on record.

Climate Highlights (from NOAA/NCDC) — July 2012

The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during July was 77.6°F, 3.3°F above the 20^th century average, marking the warmest July and all-time warmest month on record for the nation in a period of record that dates back to 1895. The previous warmest July for the nation was July 1936, when the average U.S. temperature was 77.4°F.

Warmer-than-average conditions engulfed much of the contiguous U.S. during July, with the largest temperature departures from the 20^th century average occurring across much of the Plains states, through the Midwest, and along the Eastern Seaboard. Virginia had its warmest July on record, with a statewide temperature 4.0°F above average. In total, 32 states had July temperatures among its ten warmest, with seven states having their second warmest July on record.

Lincoln: January-July 2012 Warmest on Record

January 1 - July 31, 2012 Was the Warmest on Record for Lincoln Nebraska.

The attached map shows the temperature departures from normal for the lower 48 states for the first 7 months of 2012.  It is significant to note that Lincoln was part of a region that is experiencing the largest warmer than normal anomaly in temperatures.

The average temperature for the period January 1 -July 31, 2012 (57.0 F) was the warmest on record for Lincoln, Nebraska  (and Omaha as well).  The data record extends back 126 years (1887-2012).

Here is the listing of the top ten warmest January 1 through July 31 time periods for Lincoln.  Temperatures (Value) are in degrees F.

Rank  Value  Ending Date
  1    57.0    7/31/2012
  2    56.5    7/31/1934
  3    55.8    7/31/1921
  4    55.3    7/31/1987
  5    54.6    7/31/2006
  6    54.3    7/31/1946
  7    54.1    7/31/1931,  7/31/1939
  9    53.9    7/31/1986
10    53.8    7/31/1991,  7/31/1933

July 2012 Climate Update for Lincoln. NE

July 2012 was the 2nd driest and 7th warmest on record for Lincoln, NE.
The Lincoln data record spans 126 years from 1887-2012.

The above maps show that Lincoln was in the center of a large region of below normal precipitation and they were also part of a large region that had well above normal temperatures for the month of July 2012.

Related Links:
Lincoln Heat Waves
Lincoln's  Top Ten Hottest and Coldest Months
Lincoln's Top Ten Driest and Wettest Months