El Niño or No Niño? Update October 5, 2012.
An El Niño watch remains in effect, but NOAA climate experts have downgraded the likelihood that it will develop from about 70 percent to 55 percent. Even though its development has slowed, El Niño may still emerge over the fall and winter. If it does, it's expected to be a relatively weak one.
How can El Niño affect winter weather?
It is too early to have a confident forecast for this upcoming Winter in Nebraska. It does look like the current record breaking drought will persist well into Winter (see the 2nd map below). And it should be noted taht we are headed into the time of eyar with the normally lowest monthly precipiation amounts. Computer models are indicating that the highest probablity is for cooler than normal for the rest of October for eastern Nebraska over to the Great Lakes region and down into the Southeastern U.S. However the Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the highest probablity for the December to February time period is for warmer than normal temperatures for Nebraska as well as the larger region from Montana across the northern and central Plains states and into the Great Lakes and Midwest regions as well.