Friday, June 22, 2012

El Nino/La Nina Outlook for the Rest of 2012

Mid June 2012 ENSO Predictions.

The above graph shows all of the ENSO computer model forecasts created in Mid-June and extending out through next February-March-April (FMA).  ENSO refers to the El Nino Southern Oscillation.  Values of -0.5 and lower are La Nina conditions and values +0.5and larger are El Nino conditions. 

None of the computer models are predicting a return to La Nina conditions during this coming fall or winter.  The last two winters, 2010-11 and 2011-12 were La Nina winters.  Approximately 1/2 or 50% of the models are predicting El Nino conditions and the other 50% of the models are predicting neutral (i.e. neither El Nino or La Nina ) conditions during the upcoming fall and winter.

El Nino winters have a tendency to be warmer than normal for the upper Great Plains (Nebraska through the Dakotas).  Stay tuned for updates, we just might have another warmer than normal winter in our area later this year!


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