Wednesday, June 27, 2012

June 26, 2012 Heat in the High Plains

June 26, 2012 Heat Wave Across the High Plains

The attached map shows the high temperatures for June 26, 2012 from Montana down to Texas and eastward toward the Mississippi Valley.

Highest temperature on the map for each state:
Montana: 111F
North Dakota: 108F
South Dakota: 111F
Wyoming: 102 F
Nebraska: 115 F
Colorado: 111F
Kansas: 115F
Oklahoma: 111F
Texas: 113 F
Arkansas 104F

An all time record high occurred in McCook, Nebrasks at 115F.  The previous record for the day was 103F set in 1998.  This is also the highest ever recorded temperature for the month of June.  The previous June record was 112F set in 1933.  This was also the highest ever recorded temperature for McCook, NE.  The previous all-time record high was 114F set in 1932.  The data record for McCook, NE extends back to 1896 (see table below).

There were 156 record high temperatures yesterday (red dots) and 54 record warm overnight low temperatures (yellow dots) for a total shown on the map of 210 record warm temperatures.



                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
  MAXIMUM        115R   218 PM 103    1998  88     27       87
  MINIMUM         70    558 AM  45    1968  59     11       67
  AVERAGE         93                        74     19       77

Friday, June 22, 2012

El Nino/La Nina Outlook for the Rest of 2012

Mid June 2012 ENSO Predictions.

The above graph shows all of the ENSO computer model forecasts created in Mid-June and extending out through next February-March-April (FMA).  ENSO refers to the El Nino Southern Oscillation.  Values of -0.5 and lower are La Nina conditions and values +0.5and larger are El Nino conditions. 

None of the computer models are predicting a return to La Nina conditions during this coming fall or winter.  The last two winters, 2010-11 and 2011-12 were La Nina winters.  Approximately 1/2 or 50% of the models are predicting El Nino conditions and the other 50% of the models are predicting neutral (i.e. neither El Nino or La Nina ) conditions during the upcoming fall and winter.

El Nino winters have a tendency to be warmer than normal for the upper Great Plains (Nebraska through the Dakotas).  Stay tuned for updates, we just might have another warmer than normal winter in our area later this year!

Jan. 1-June 21, 2012: Record Highs Outpace Record Lows in the U.S. During 2012

The attached map shows the current heat wave produced record high temperatures (in red) for June 21 in the U.S.  This is the continuation of a trend that began back in mid winter with persistent warmer than normal conditions.  March 2012 was the warmest on record for the U.S. and set many record high temperatures (118 years of data, 1895-2012).  Although the departure from normal with the recent warmth in June is not as large as earlier in the year, the U.S. continues to "run a fever" with above normal conditions for almost all of the U.S. (for the year to date).
For the year-to-date, warm temperature records have been outnumbering cold temperature records in the U.S. by a ratio of about 7-to-1.
Locally, as of June 21, Lincoln, NE, is, for the year to date, still the warmest year on record (126 years of data, 1887-2012).

For much more information go to Climate Central 

Sunday, June 17, 2012

May 2012 Statewide Temperature Rankings

  • Climate Highlights — May
  • The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during May was 64.3 degrees F, which is 3.3 degrees F above average — the second warmest May on record
  • Warmer-than-average temperatures were present for all regions except the Northwest, with the largest departures from average across the Central Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Twenty-six states had May temperatures ranking among their ten warmest.
  • Precipitation patterns across the contiguous U.S. were mixed during May. The Eastern Seaboard and Upper Midwest were wetter than average. North Carolina, South Carolina, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Minnesota had May precipitation totals among their ten wettest. Dry conditions prevailed for the Mid-South, parts of the Southern Plains, and the Great Basin. Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas, Nevada, and Utah had a top ten dry May.
  • Tropical Storm Beryl made landfall near Jacksonville, Florida on May 28th, bringing beneficial rainfall to parts of the drought-stricken Southeast. Beryl occurred on the heels of Tropical Storm Alberto, marking only the third time on record that two tropical cyclones reached tropical storm strength during May in the North Atlantic basin.
  • Ongoing drought, combined with windy conditions, created ideal wildfire conditions across the Southwest. The Whitewater-Baldy Fire complex in the Gila National Forest of western New Mexico grew out of control and charred over 210,000 acres by the beginning of June. The fire surpassed 2011’s Las Conchas Fire as the largest wildfire on record for the state.
  • According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, as of May 29th, 37.4 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing drought conditions, a slight decrease from 38.2 percent at the beginning of May. Drought conditions improved across the coastal Southeast, the Southern Plains, Northeast, and Upper Midwest, while they deteriorated for parts of the Mid-South and Southwest.
  • A list of select May and spring temperature and precipitation records can be found here.

  • May 2012 Global Temperature Anomalies

  • The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for May 2012 was 0.66°C (1.19°F) above the 20th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F). This is the second warmest May since records began in 1880, behind only 2010.

  • The Northern Hemisphere land and ocean average surface temperature for May 2012 was the all-time warmest May on record, at 0.85°C (1.53°F) above average.

  • The globally-averaged land surface temperature for May 2012 was the all-time warmest May on record, at 1.21°C (2.18°F) above average.

  • ENSO-neutral conditions continued during May 2012 and sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to warm. The May worldwide ocean surface temperatures ranked as the 10th warmest May on record.

  • For March–May (boreal spring) 2012, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above average—the seventh warmest such period on record.

  • The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for January–May 2012 was the 11th warmest on record, at 0.50°C (0.90°F) above the 20th century average.
  • Saturday, June 16, 2012

    Heavy Rainfall Across Eastern Nebraska, June 14-15, 2012

    Radar Estimated Precipitation for June 14, 2012

    Heavy rain fell across eastern Nebraska on the evening of June 14, 2012 due to a stalled cold front in our area.  Temperatures during the day reached the mid 90's with dew point temperatures in the mid 60's.  At 3:54 pm CDST the temperature was 94F with a dew point temperature of 66F.  Thunderstorms formed over the area and continued to move across the area until 5 am CDST.

    Although they can be similar,  radar estimated precipitation is not as accurate as actual measurements using rain gauges.  The following map shows the actual precipitation measurements for this storm event.

    Saturday, June 2, 2012

    Lincoln, NE, Temperature Departures, Jan. 1-May 31, 2012

    January 1 - May 31, 2012 Lincoln, NE, Temperature Departures from Normal
    Lincoln, NE, January 1 - May 31, 2012 Climate Summary:
    The attached graph shows the daily temperature departures from the normal for each day. The length of the column indicates the magnitude of the departure. If the column is red it is above normal and if the column is blue it is below normal.
    For example on January 19, 2012 the high temperature was 16 F and the low temperature was 5 F for a daily average of 11 F which was 13 degrees BELOW the normal for that day of 24 F. The column on the graph for that day is blue and extends down to a -13 degrees departure from normal.
    For example on January 30, 2012 the high temperature was 70 F and the low temperature was 34 F for a daily average of 52 F which was 27 degrees ABOVE the normal for that day of 25 F. The column on the graph for that day is red and extends upward to a +27 degrees departure from normal.
    Here is a listing of the total number of days between January 1 and May 31 that had above, below and exactly normal temperatures:
    Above: 106 days  (69.7% of the days)
    Below: 38 days (25% of the days)
    Exactly Normal: 8 days (5.3% of the days)
    Total = 152 days

    And, as of May 31, 2012, this is still the warmest year on record for that time period with data extending back 126 years to 1887.

    May 2012 Lincoln, NE, Climate Summary

    Lincoln, NE May 2012 Climate Summary

    The red line is the normal high and the blue line is the normal low.
    The top of each vertical bar is the high for the day and,
     the bottom of each vertical bar is the low for the day.  
    All data in this graph are from the National Weather Service and HPRCC data archives.

    May 2012
    Average High:  80.5 F;  Normal = 74.2 F; Departure from normal = +6.3 F
    Average Low:  53.4 F  Normal 50.5 F;  Departure from normal = +2.9 F
    Monthly Average:  66.9 F;  Normal = 62.3F; Departure from normal = +4.6 F
    Warmest temperature 96 F on May 26
    Coldest temperature 39 F on May 9

    Total = 3.00 inches; Normal = 4.29 inches; Departure from normal = -1.29 inches

    May 2012 was the 11th warmest on record (1887-2012, 126 years)
    Warmest May on record was 71.9F in May 1934
    Coldest May on record was 53.7 F in 1892

    May 2012 was the 8th month in a row that Lincoln's temperatures were above normal.

    Yer to date, January 1-May 31, 2012 is the warmest year on record (126 years of data)