Tuesday, May 1, 2012

May 2012 U.S. Temperature Outlook

Temperature Outlook (Forecast) for May 2012

The Climate Prediction center (CPC) has issued their temperature outlook (Forecast) for May 2012.
There are four categories, A (Above), B (Below), N (Near Normal) and EC (Equal Chances).  Historically, 33.3% of the time the temperatures will be A, B, or N.  Therefore, the numbers in the red area for example are all 33 or higher.  The darkest red area is enclosed by a 50 or higher line meaning the probability of it being warmer than normal is 50% or 17% higher than random chance (33%).   The area of EC means there is no current predictability and all three categories are equally likely (A, B, N).  Based upon this map, the outlook for Nebraska is a highest likelihood of continued warmer than normal conditions in May. 

Two important points, (1) this does not mean every day would be above normal, i.e. it is an outlook for the monthly average, and, (2) this is not a high probability forecast, i.e. the odds favor warmer than normal but only slightly meaning it could also be N (Near Normal) or B (Below Normal) for the month.

If May 2012 averages above normal in temperatures, it will be the 8th month in a row for average monthly temperatures to be above normal for eastern Nebraska.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.