Monday, April 16, 2012

April 14, 2012 Tornadoes: Forecast vs. Outcome

April 14, 2012 Tornadoes: Forecast vs. Outcome
The attached illustration is from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
Here's an evolution of the convective outlooks issued by the SPC for the April 14, 2012 outbreak, with preliminary storm reports overlaid on the
final Day 1 outlook (bottom right).
Note that the maps start with Day 7,meaning 7 days ahead of the predicted event. Notice how each day the same area was outlined for being at risk for severe weather on April 14, 2012. This event CANNOT be considered a "surprise event" with forecasts (outlooks) pointing to the impacted area a week ahead of time.
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