Wednesday, February 15, 2012

El Niño and La Niña . 2012 Outlook

El Niño and La Niña 2012 Outlook
The graph to the left is from The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).

Any value of +0.5 or higher is consdiered to be a an El Niño phase and any value less than -0.5 is considered to be a La Niña phase. The current observation "OBS" is a -1.1 and indicative of a moderate La Niña .

There are multiple numerical forecast models shown on the graph. The fact that there is so much variation between the models is indicative of the fact that this is an area of meteorology forecasting with large amounts of uncertainty.

The majority of the numerical forecast models push the climate into "neutral" conditions by Summer (JJA) between +0.5 and -0.5, i.e. the current La Niña would end and but an El Niño would NOT begin. A few models indicate that the current La Niña could linger into Summer but it would be very weak. And a few of the models push the climate dramatically into an El Niño. Based upon the consensus of the majority of models, the current La Niña should fade away into "neutral" conditions by Summer 2012.

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