Wednesday, January 19, 2011

La Niña Predictions, Jan. 2011 Update


ENSO stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation and refers to oscillation back and forth from El Niño to La El Niño conditions. The attached graph produced by the International Research Institute (IRI) shows the various computer model projections of the current La Niña (as of January 16, 2011).

On the graph, anything below the -0.5 line indicates a La Niña phase, and above the +0.5 line indicates the El Niño phase and in between +0.5 and -0.5 would be classified as "neutral".
Some of the models have the La Niña lingering into next Summer while some models have La Niña ending and a return to "neutral" conditions by next Summer. It is interesting to note that some of the models have a repeat performance of the La Niña conditions for next Autumn going into Winter 2011-12

Although there are many variables that can be used in predicting seasonal weather patterns, the existence of a La Niña, or El Niño can play a major role in our ability to produce seasonal outlooks.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

December Global Temperature Anomalies





Global Highlights (From the National Climatic Data Center)



DECEMBER 2010:

The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for December 2010 was 0.37°C (0.67°F) above the 20th century average of 12.2°C (54.0°F). This tied with 1982 and 1994 as the 17th warmest December on record. It was the coolest December since 2000.

The global land surface temperature for December 2010 was 0.38°C (0.68°F) above the 20th century average of 3.7°C (38.7°F). This tied with 1994 as the 30th warmest December on record.

The worldwide ocean surface temperature for December 2010 tied with 1994 and 1998 as the tenth warmest December on record, 0.36°C (0.65°F) above the 20th century average of 15.7°C (60.4°F).

All of the Year 2010 Monthly Global Temperature Anomaly Maps can be seen at this link:

http://snr.unl.edu/lincolnweather/data/Year2010Global-Anomalies.asp

Friday, January 14, 2011

Year 2010 Global Temperature Anomalies


Map and data from the National Climatic Data Center - State of the Climate Global Analysis

Global Highlights
•For 2010, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record, at 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). 1998 is the third warmest year-to-date on record, at 0.60°C (1.08°F) above the 20th century average.


•The 2010 Northern Hemisphere combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the warmest year on record, at 0.73°C (1.31°F) above the 20th century average. The 2010 Southern Hemisphere combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the sixth warmest year on record, at 0.51°C (0.92°F) above the 20th century average.


•The global land surface temperature for 2010 tied with 2005 as the second warmest on record, at 0.96°C (1.73°F) above the 20th century average. The warmest such period on record occurred in 2007, at 0.99°C (1.78°F) above the 20th century average.


•The global ocean surface temperature for 2010 tied with 2005 as the third warmest on record, at 0.49°C (0.88°F) above the 20th century average.


•In 2010 there was a dramatic shift in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which influences temperature and precipitation patterns around the world. A moderate-to-strong El Niño at the beginning of the year transitioned to La Niña conditions by July. At the end of November, La Niña was moderate-to-strong.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Snow Cover in 49 of 50 States

The attached map shows the snow depth on the ground as of January 12, 2011. With snow on the top of Mauna Loa in Hawaii, 49 of the 50 states have snow on the ground this morning. The lone holdout, Florida is a near miss with snow on the ground just north of Florida in Georgia.

Although unusual, this did occur as recently as last February 2010 when 49 of the 50 states also had snow on the ground. Florida was among the 49 dates in February 2010 and Hawaii was the lone holdout without any snow on its mountain peaks.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Winter 2010-11 Nebraska Snow Drought Ends

It had been one of the most snowfree Winters in the climate records of Nebraska. All that came to an end starting on Saturday January 8, 2011 and ending Monday January 10, 2011.

The map (produced by the Omaha NWS Office) shows the snowfall totals in eastern Nebraska.

The snowfall amounts ranged from 5.5 inches near the Kansas border to as much as 11.5 inches northwest of Norfolk. Lincoln officially received 6.7 inches of snowfall and Omaha Eppley officially received 6.9 inches of snowfall.

Here is a listing of the snowfall totals around the area:

BELOW ARE VERY PRELIMINARY 72 HOUR STORM EVENT TOTALS FOR MELTED PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...ENDING AT 6 TO 7 AM TUESDAY JANUARY 11TH 2011. DATA PROVIDED BY COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVERS AND OFFICIAL NWS OBSERVATION...AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO REVISION AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FILTERS IN.

SITE ID, SITE NAME, PRECIPITATION (water equivalent) SNOWFALL (in inches)

OKDN1 OAKDALE 0.56 11.5
VDLN1 VERDEL 6 SSW 1.12 11
LORN1 LORETTO 7 W 0.43 10.7
LSXI4 LITTLE SIOUX IA 2 NW 0.73 10.6
BLON1 BLOOMFIELD 0.73 10.5
STON1 STANTON 7 NE 0.72 10.2
OFK NORFOLK ASOS 0.84 10.1
WYNN1 WAYNE 0.71 10
FCLN1 FORT CALHOUN 0.83 9.7
GRAN1 GRETNA 4 NE 0.68 9.7
CSAI4 CASTANA IA 0.76 9.7
DVDN1 DAVID CITY 0.82 9.5
LYON1 LYONS 0.72 9.5
NLHN1 NELIGH 0.94 9.5
WESN1 WESTON 3 NW 0.54 9.5
VRGN1 VIRGINIA 4 SSE 0.53 9.4
FMTN1 FREMONT 0.77 9.2
TEKN1 TEKAMAH 0.72 9
WPTN1 WEST POINT 0.75 9
UNDI4 UNDERWOOD IA 0.61 9
CRFN1 CROFTON 0.7 9
KENI4 KENNEBEC IA 0.7 8.9
BNTN1 BENNINGTON 3WSW 0.63 8.7
OAKI4 OAKLAND IA 0.6 8.6
HRLI4 HARLAN IA 1 N 0.77 8.4
AUBN1 AUBURN 5 ESE 0.43 8.3
RUON1 RULO 2 W 0.43 8.2
LOGI4 LOGAN IA 0.65 8
HUMN1 HUMPHREY 0.45 8
WLTN1 WALTHILL 0.57 8
RYMN1 RAYMOND 2 NE 0.48 7.6
SCHN1 SCHUYLER 0.67 7.6
UNGN1 UEHLING 0.7 7.5
SYCN1 SYRACUSE 0.59 7.5
PPLN1 PAPILLION 0.65 7.4
UTCN1 UTICA 0.61 7.4
OAX VALLEY NWS 0.68 7.3
GLNI4 GLENWOOD IA 0.48 7.1
SIDI4 SIDNEY IA 0.56 7.1
CLDI4 CLARINDA IA 0.51 7
SDHI4 SHENANDOAH 0.54 7
OMA OMAHA EPPLEY ASOS 0.61 6.9
SEWN1 SEWARD 0.72 6.8
RNDN1 RANDOLPH 6 SSW 0.38 6.8
LNK LINCOLN ARPT ASOS 0.56 6.7
MALN1 MALCOLM 0.54 6.7
FNDN1 FRIEND 3 E 0.49 6.5
TBLN1 TABLE ROCK 4 N 0.4 6.5
MPTI4 MAPLETON IA 0.59 6.5
SPNN1 SPRINGFIELD 7 E 0.62 6.1
BRCN1 BEATRICE 1N 0.49 6
FABN1 FAIRBURY 0.59 5.5
HSII4 HASTINGS IA 0.39 5.4

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Winter 2010-11 Lincoln Snowfall Drought


The photo on the left is from January 6, 2010 (LAST YEAR) on the rural edge of Lincoln, NE.
As of this year, January 6, 2011, Lincoln, NE has officially received only 1.7 total inches of snowfall.
This is the 2nd least amount for the time period going back to 1948-49.
When was the most snowfall for this period? Last year with 32.4 inches of snowfall by January 6!!

October 2010: 0.0 inches; November 2010: 0.0 inches; December 2010: 1.7 inches
January 1-6, 2011: = 0.0 inches for a Total of 1.7 inches

Note daily snowfall data only extend back to January 1948. Monthly snowfall totals do exist however, back to December 1899 but can't be used for this particular situation.

Snowfall Total Records (October 1-January 6)

LEAST amount of snowfall October 1-January 6:
Rank 1: 1960-1961 = 1.3 inches
Rank 2: 2010-2011 = 1.7 inches
Rank 3: 2001-2002 = 1.9 inches
Rank 4: 1965-1966 = 2.0 inches
Rank 4: 1964-1965 = 2.0 inches
Rank 6: 1979-1980 = 2.9 inches
Rank 7: 1967-1968 = 3.0 inches
Rank 8: 1958-1959 = 3.1 inches

Rank 9: 2002-2003 = 3.7 inches
Rank 9: 1949-1950 = 3.7 inches
Rank 11:1999-2000 = 3.8 inches


MOST amount of snowfall October 1-January 6:
Rank 1: 2009-2010 = 32.4 inches
Rank 2: 1973-1974 = 26.3 inches
Rank 3: 1983-1984 = 23.8 inches
Rank 4: 1970-1971 = 21.0 inches
Rank 5: 1997-1998 = 20.5 inches
Rank 6: 1972-1973 = 19.6 inches
Rank 7: 1961-1962 = 19.5 inches
Rank 8: 1957-1958 = 19.2 inches
Rank 9: 2000-2001 = 18.0 inches
Rank 10:1948-1949 = 16.9 inches





Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Year 2010 U.S. Precipitation Anomalies


A year of precipitation consists of many wet and dry periods and it is sometimes difficult to see the long-term (yearly) precipitation climatology. The attached map shows the departure from normal (in percent) for the total annual (2010) precipitation for the conterminous U.S.
Northeastern Nebraska had widespread flooding from repeated heavy rains in May and June 2010, but that extreme wet spell is somewhat hidden when taking a look at the annual totals.
Much of the U.S. in 2010 experienced below normal precipitation (yellow and brown colors). The two primary very wet locations (blue and purple colors) in 2010 were the Iowa to North and South Dakota region and the Southern California to Nevada region.
Create your own climate maps at our High Plains Regional Climate Center. http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/

Monday, January 3, 2011

Global Climate Update




Headline: January -November 2010 Global Temperatures were warmest on record.

The global combined land and ocean surface temperature for the year-to-date through November was 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century average—the warmest such period since records began in 1880. The combined land and ocean surface temperature through November in the Northern Hemisphere was also the warmest on record, while the combined land and ocean surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere tied with 2005 as the fifth warmest such period on record. The globally averaged land temperature was 1.02°C (1.84°F) above average, which was the warmest January–November in the period of record.

The shift from a warm phase to a cold phase ENSO during 2010 contributed to a globally averaged January–November ocean surface temperature anomaly of 0.50°C (0.90°F) above the 20th century average, tying with 2005 as the third warmest such period on record. Images of sea surface temperature conditions are available for all weeks during 2010 from the weekly SST page.

Warmer-than-average temperatures occurred during the year-to-date (January–November) for most of the world's surface. The warmest 11-month above-average temperatures occurred throughout the high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere, Canada, Alaska, the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Middle East, eastern Europe, and northern Africa. Temperatures were notably cooler across the Southern oceans, most of the eastern Pacific Ocean, western Scandinavia, parts of central Russia, and parts of Australia.

According to Environment Canada, 2010 set a record as the warmest January–November period for the country, 2.9°C (5.2°F) above normal. This value surpassed the previous record set in 2006 at 2.4°C (4.3°F) above normal. In addition to the second warmest fall (September–November) period on record during 2010, Canada also experienced its warmest spring (March–May) and winter (December 2009–February 2010) and third warmest summer (June–August) on record.

Map and data information from NCDC.