Thursday, December 22, 2011

January-March 2012 Climate Outlook

Weather Outlook January - March 2012
(from the Climate Prediction center, NOAA)

3-Month Temperature Outlook for JFM of 2012
During the period of January through March 2012, enhanced probabilities for below normal temperatures are forecast across extreme northwestern portions of Wyoming and South Dakota and the western two thirds of North. In contrast, enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are forecast farther south from southeaster Colorado eastward across the central plains to the Chicago area and across the southern Great Lakes region. Finally, a ribbon of equal chances of above, below and near average temperatures are forecast across central sections of Central Region directly between the cold to the north and the warmth to the south.

3-Month Precipitation Outlook for JFM of 2012
The precipitation forecast for the meteorological winter season of January through March 2012 remains nearly unchanged from the previous forecast. Overall the forecast calls for enhanced chances for above normal precipitation across northwestern and eastern portions of central region. The eastern area extends from the Great Lakes region south through south central Missouri eastward across the Ohio Valley and the western area is west of a line from west central Colorado north to north central North Dakota. Within the eastern area, the area of greater potential for above average precipitation, for 40 to 50 percent probabilities, extends across portions of the Ohio valley. This includes southern Indiana and portions of Kentucky. In contrast, the threat of below normal-precipitation remains slightly enhanced across the western half of Kansas, and far southeastern Colorado. Finally, sandwiched between these two areas, the CPC is forecasting a narrow ribbon of equal chances for above, below and near normal precipitation. This CPC forecast was weighted heavily on the La Niña composites in addition to statistical tools.

3-Month Nebraska Temperature and Precipitation Outlook for JFM of 2012
During the period of January period of January through March 2012, Nebraska has a forecast of EC. "EC" means equal chances, i.e. there is no tendency for any of the three categories to be more likely. Therefore there is a 33% chance of above normal, normal or below normal for both temperature and precipitation in Nebraska for the period January - March 2012.

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