Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Winter 2011-12 El Niño & La Niña Outlook

Winter 2011-12 El Niño & La Niña Outlook

Climatologists know that El Niño and La Niña can have a Strong influence on our winter weather patterns in North America. So what is it looking like for this coming Winter?

Most of the set of dynamical and statistical models (see graph) predict neutral ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions from the July-September 2011 season currently in progress, through the early part of 2012.

Current predictions and observations indicate a probability of 26% for La Niña conditions for the November 2011-January 2012 time period, with the probability for El Niño conditions at 14% for the November 2011-January 2012. The probability of Neutral or "Nada Nino" (my term) conditions from November through January is the largest at 60% .

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