Thursday, December 16, 2010
La Niña Predictions, Dec. 2010 Update
The attached graph produced by the International Research Institute (IRI) shows the various computer model projections of the current La Niña (as of December 16, 2010).
On the graph, anything below the -0.5 line indicates a La Niña phase, and above the +0.5 line indicates the El Niño phase and in between +0.5 and -0.5 would be classified as "neutral". Some of the models have La Niña lingering into next Summer while some models have La Niña ending and a return to "neutral" conditions by next Summer.
There is a huge variation among the models for the early Autumn time period of August-September-October (ASO) 2011 with some models showing a return to the El Niño phase, some indicate a return to neutral conditions and a few models indicate a persistence of La Niña into autumn 2011.
Although there are many variables that can be used in predicting seasonal weather patterns, the existence of a La Niña, or El Niño can play a major role in our ability to produce seasonal outlooks.