Tuesday, December 7, 2010

La Niña Expected to Persist through Winter 2010-11


The attached graph produced by the International Research Institute (IRI) shows the various computer model projections of the current La Niña (as of November 17, 2010).

All of the model projections keep the current La Niña through at least the Spring of 2011. Just over half of the computer models indicate La Niña will strengthen further and peak during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2010-11. On the graph anything below the -0.5 line indicates a La Niña phase, and above the +0.5 line indicates the El Niño phase and in between +0.5 and -0.5 would be classified as "neutral". Some of the models have La Niña lingering into next Summer while some models have La Niña ending and a return to "neutral" by next Summer.

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