Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Global Climate Update



November 2010 Global Highlights
•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for November 2010 was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F). This was the second warmest such period on record. 2004 was the warmest November on record.

•The November 2010 Northern Hemisphere land and ocean surface temperature was the warmest November on record, while the Southern Hemisphere land and ocean surface temperature was the 13th warmest November on record.

•The November 2010 global land surface temperature was the warmest on record, at 1.52°C (2.74°F) above the 20th century average, while the November global ocean temperature tied with 1987 and 2008 as the tenth warmest on record, at 0.39°C (0.70°F) above average.

The most notable warm anomalies around the world during November 2010 occurred across the northern high latitudes, including Alaska and a large swath of Canada and encompassed most of Europe and Asia. The coolest anomalies were seen over Scandinavia, most of Australia, and the eastern and central Pacific Ocean.

Animation of all the months 2005-2010

Maps and data are from the National Climatic data Center.
Animation was created by me at the Applied Climate Science Group of the School of Natural Sciences, UNL

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Major Winter Storm December 23-27, 2010




Link to time lapse photo of snowfall accumulation
Storm Totals in inches from December 23-27, 2010.

Snowfall amounts are listed by state and were acquired from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

...MAINE...
AUGUSTA 1 SE 15.0
HARRINGTON 15.0
BETHEL 14.0
ORONO 13.8
STOCKHOLM 12.3
COLUMBIA 12.0
LEWISTON 12.0
NORTHFIELD 12.0
CORNISH 11.5
ELLSWORTH-EAST 11.2
TOPSHAM 11.0
RAYMOND 4 NNE 10.5
JAY 10.0
SOUTH WINDHAM 9.5
CAMDEN 1 SSW 9.0
AURORA 8.0
KENNEBUNK 2 NE 8.0
MACHIAS 7.5
BLUE HILL 7.0
DOVER-FOXCROFT 7.0
KNOX 7.0
CARIBOU WFO 6.1
BAR HARBOR 6.0
NORRIDGEWOCK 6.0
BANGOR 3.0

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...ALABAMA...
HUNTSVILLE 3 NE 6.0
SKYLINE 5.5
HACKLEBURG 2 E 4.0
MERIDIANVILLE 4.0
MUSCADINE 4.0
MADISON 2 N 3.5
MOULTON 6 W 3.5
ANNISTON 5 SW 3.0
ATTALLA 3.0
HEFLIN 7 S 2.5
ONEONTA 10 SW 2.2
HARTSELLE 2.0
NEW MARKET 6 SW 2.0
FLORENCE 5 N 1.0

...CONNECTICUT...
NEW MILFORD 12.0
DANBURY 11.1
BURLINGTON 11.0
NORFOLK 10.3
TOLLAND 10.2
LITTLE MILFORD 10.0
STAMFORD 10.0
TORRINGFORD 9.5
STAFFORD 8.5
WETHERSFIELD 8.0
STAFFORDVILLE 7.5
MANCHESTER 7.0
WEST HARTFORD 6.5
EAST KILLINGLY 5.5
ASHFORD 5.0

...DELAWARE...
STOCKLEY 11.7
WOODBURY 11.7
SELBYVILLE 11.3
DOVER 9.0
DELMAR 4 E 8.5
ELLENDALE 8.2
VIOLA 6.2
WILMINGTON 5 N 5.5
BLACKBIRD 4.0

...GEORGIA...
ROSMAN 5 W 7.4
FORT MOUNTAIN STATE PARK 7.0
SUCHES 7.0
BREVARD 1 NNE 6.5
BLAIRSVILLE 6.0
BLUE RIDGE 6.0
CAMP MERRILL 6.0
HIAWASSEE 6.0
RINGGOLD 6.0
SKY VALLEY 6.0
TRENTON 6.0
HICKORY 2 NW 5.5
DAWSONVILLE 5.0
LAFAYETTE 5.0

...IOWA...
NORTH WASHINGTON 10.5
NEW HAMPTON 1 S 10.0
SPRINGVILLE 9.7
OELWEIN 9.5
LOWDEN 9.2
BERTRAM 9.0
ANAMOSA 4 ENE 8.8
MARION 2 NW 8.8
DAVENPORT MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 8.4
CEDAR RAPIDS 5 NW 8.3

...ILLINOIS...
BEACH PARK 1W 9.9
CHATSWORTH 8.0
GURNEE 2NE 8.0
NORTHBROOK 7.4
MOLINE QUAD-CITY AIRPORT 7.2
ABINGDON 1 N 7.0
PEORIA 7.0
ALTONA 6.6
BLOOMINGTON 3 NE 6.5
CORDOVA 6.5
EVANSTON 6.1
MORTON GROVE 4.8
SPRINGFIELD 4.6
BROOKPORT 3 N 3.0
OHARE AIRPORT 2.0

...INDIANA...
NEW HARMONY 6.0
POSEYVILLE 6.0
RAINSVILLE 4.2
LAFAYETTE 11 S 4.0
WEST LAFAYETTE 2 NW 3.6
ATTICA 3.5
EVANSVILLE 3.0
VINCENNES 4 E 2.6
INDIANAPOLIS INTL ARPT 1.6

...KENTUCKY...
SMILAX 6.0
ELVA 5.5
FONDE 5.5
HOLMES MILL 1 SW 5.5
HARDY 5.0
TATUMSVILLE 5.0
VIRGIE 5.0
GREENVILLE 8 ESE 4.8
ASHCAMP 4.5
BENTON 3 WNW 4.5
CENTRAL CITY 4.5
GREENVILLE 8 SE 4.5
BASKETT 4.1
MOUSIE 4.0

...MASSACHUSETTS...
SAVOY 24.8
CANTON 19.0
SOUTH BOSTON 19.0
LYNN 18.5
TAUNTON 17.3
WINCHESTER 17.3
NORTH OTIS 17.0
SALEM 17.0
SAUGUS 17.0
EAST BOSTON 16.5
BROCKTON 16.0
BECKET 6 SSW 15.5
PLAINFIELD 12.5
WORCESTER 12.5
WHITMAN 12.3
RANDOLPH 11.8
SOUTH ATTLEBORO 10.0
FRAMINGHAM 9.6
BLANDFORD 9.5
HEATH 8.0
CHESTERFIELD 7.5
VINEYARD HAVEN 4.0
WEST SPRINGFIELD 3.5
EAST FALMOUTH 2.8

...MARYLAND...
OCEAN CITY 13.5
FRUITLAND 11.8
POCOMOKE CITY 11.0
PORTNEYS OVERLOOK 5.7
MILLINGTON 5.5
RIDGE 1 NW 4.9
SAINT JAMES 1 E 4.5
DENTON 4.0
MECHANICSVILLE 4.0
TANGLEWOOD 2.5
HOLLYWOOD 2.0

...MINNESOTA...
RED WING 7.0
AUSTIN 2 W 6.8
MADELIA 6.2
OAK CENTER 6.2
ROCKFORD 6.1
MORGAN 6.0
WELCOME 6.0
WHEATON 6.0
WINNEBAGO 6.0
MINNEAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 4.6

...MISSOURI...
FRENCH VILLAGE 2 E 4.0
GLENDALE 3.9
MONROE CITY 3.8
ST LOUIS 3.4
ELLISVILLE 3.1

...MISSISSIPPI...
NEW ALBANY 2.0
OXFORD 2.0
YUMA 4 ESE 2.0
BOONEVILLE 1.5
FULTON 3 W 1.3
AMORY 1.0
GRENADA 1.0
HOUSTON 1.0
MANTACHIE 1.0
PITTSBORO 1.0
WATER VALLEY 1.0
WATER VALLEY 4 W 0.8

...NORTH CAROLINA...
PEORIA 2 WSW 17.8
NASHVILLE 13.0
TARBORO 12.5
ROANOKE RAPIDS 12.0
GATES 11.0
PIKEVILLE 11.0
ASHEVILLE 9.0
SMITHFIELD 9.0
RALEIGH 8.5
ELIZABETH CITY 8.0
HERTFORD 7 S 7.0

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
PIERMONT 25.0
RANDOLPH 25.0
GRAFTON 24.0
UNITY 18.0
NEW LONDON 13.0
WEBSTER 3 SSW 12.0
GOFFSTOWN 11.3
WALPOLE 11.0
WOLFEBORO 10.7
BRISTOL 1 NNW 10.5
KEENE 10.0
ALTON 9.5
NEWBURY 4 SE 9.5
EATON 3 SSW 8.0
GILFORD 8.0

...NEW JERSEY...
RAHWAY 32.0 UNION COUNTY
ELIZABETH 31.8 UNION COUNTY
BRICKTOWN 30.0 OCEAN COUNTY
LINCOLN PARK 29.0 MORRIS COUNTY
LYNDHURST 29.0 BERGEN COUNTY
TOMS RIVER 28.0 OCEAN COUNTY
LODI 27.1 BERGEN COUNTY
DENNISVILLE 26.5 CAPE MAY COUNTY
FANWOOD 26.0
JERSEY CITY 26.0 HUDSON COUNTY
CLIFTON 25.5 PASSAIC COUNTY
COLTS NECK 25.0 MONMOUTH COUNTY
EDISON 25.0 MIDDLESEX COUNTY
HARRISON 25.0
BELLEVILLE 24.8 ESSEX COUNTY
HASKELL 24.5
NEWARK AIRPORT 24.2 ESSEX COUNTY
CHESEQUAKE 23.2
SOMERSET 22.5 SOMERSET COUNTY
NORTH CAPE MAY 21.0 CAPE MAY COUNTY
ATLANTIC CITY 20.1 ATLANTIC COUNTY
PLEASANTVILLE 20.1 ATLANTIC COUNTY
MILLBURN 20.0
WRIGHTSTOWN 19.2 BURLINGTON COUNTY
VINELAND 18.7 CUMBERLAND COUNTY
CAPE MAY 18.0
NORTHFIELD 17.5
SOUTH RIVER 16.5
WHITE HORSE 16.0 MERCER COUNTY
PRINCETON 15.0 MERCER COUNTY
MALAGA 13.5 GLOUCESTER COUNTY
TABERNACLE 12.5
PENNSAUKEN 12.0 CAMDEN COUNTY
HOPATCONG 7.2 SUSSEX COUNTY

...NEW YORK...
GREAT KILLS 29.0 RICHMOND COUNTY
HARRIMAN 26.0 ORANGE COUNTY
MONROE 26.0 ORANGE COUNTY
TUXEDO PARK 26.0 ORANGE COUNTY
PINE PLAINS 25.0 DUTCHESS COUNTY
MARINE PARK 24.5 KINGS COUNTY
EAST POESTENKILL 24.0 RENSSELAER COUNTY
NORTH HILLSDALE 24.0 COLUMBIA COUNTY
SHEEPSHEAD BAY 24.0 KINGS COUNTY
TALLMAN 24.0 ROCKLAND COUNTY
NORTH MASSAPEQUA 23.5 NASSAU COUNTY
SOUNDVIEW PARK HOMES 22.5 BRONX COUNTY
BEDFORD PARK 22.0 BRONX COUNTY
ELTINGVILLE 22.0 RICHMOND COUNTY
LARCHMONT 22.0 WESTCHESTER COUNTY
MOUNT VERNON 22.0 WESTCHESTER COUNTY
LEVITTOWN 21.9 NASSAU COUNTY
MIDDLE VILLAGE 21.5 QUEENS COUNTY
FLUSHING 21.0 QUEENS COUNTY
KINDERHOOK 21.0 COLUMBIA COUNTY
WEST HAVERSTRAW 21.0 ROCKLAND COUNTY
BRONX ZOO 20.9 BRONX COUNTY
BAYSIDE 20.5 QUEENS COUNTY
NORTH CHATHAM 20.3 COLUMBIA COUNTY
GHENT 20.0 COLUMBIA COUNTY
NYC/CENTRAL PARK 20.0 NEW YORK COUNTY
YONKERS 19.5 WESTCHESTER COUNTY
UPTON 18.8 SUFFOLK COUNTY
NORTH BABYLON 18.5 SUFFOLK COUNTY
NEW PALTZ 18.1 ULSTER COUNTY
AVERILL PARK 18.0 RENSSELAER COUNTY
RICHMOND HILL 18.0 QUEENS COUNTY
COLD SPRING 17.0 PUTNAM COUNTY
MAPLECREST 17.0 GREENE COUNTY
NEW HYDE PARK 16.8 NASSAU COUNTY
NEWBURGH 16.5 ORANGE COUNTY
LONG BEACH 16.0 NASSAU COUNTY
WEST ISLIP 16.0 SUFFOLK COUNTY
GREEN ISLAND 15.8 ALBANY COUNTY
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 15.5 QUEENS COUNTY
ISLIP AIRPORT 14.2 SUFFOLK COUNTY
NYC/LA GUARDIA 14.0 QUEENS COUNTY
WAPPINGERS FAL 14.0 DUTCHESS COUNTY
ALBANY 1 SW 13.0 ALBANY COUNTY
HUNTERSLAND 12.0 SCHOHARIE COUNTY
MILTON 11.0 SARATOGA COUNTY
SCHENECTADY 6.8 SCHENECTADY COUNTY

...PENNSYLVANIA...
FOLCROFT 14.0
BENSALEM 13.0
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT 12.4
CLIFTON HEIGHTS 11.7
WYNNEWOOD 11.0
CHESTERBROOK 10.0
EAST NANTMEAL 7.0
QUAKERTOWN 7.0
BLAKESLEE 6.3
POCONO SUMMIT 4.3
ALLENTOWN 2.8

...RHODE ISLAND...
WOONSOCKET 13.0
NORTH KINGSTOWN 12.0
WEST WARWICK 12.0
PROVIDENCE 11.0
BARRINGTON 10.0
EAST PROVIDENCE 10.0
WEST GREENWICH 9.5
WARREN 9.0
MIDDLETOWN 8.5
WESTERLY 8.0
CRANSTON 7.0
NEWPORT 7.0
BRISTOL 6.2

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
FRANKLIN 10 N 10.0
GRANITE FALLS 4 ESE 7.0
POLKVILLE 5 S 5.5
PUMPKIN CENTER 5.3
SIMPSONVILLE 6 ENE 5.0
CLARKESVILLE 5 W 4.7
MONROE 4.7
HARRISBURG 1 S 4.3
BROOKWOOD TRAILER 1 NNE 4.2
LANDRUM 4.2
HARTSVILLE 4.0
LANCASTER 4.0
MULLINS 1 N 4.0

...SOUTH DAKOTA...
VICTOR 4 NNE 8.0
MCINTOSH 6 SE 5.0 ESTIMATED

...TENNESSEE...
COSBY 9.0
ERWIN 8.0
GATLINBURG 3 SE 8.0
COWAN 6.5
BENTON 6.0
GATLINBURG 6.0
MURPHY 6.0
CLEVELAND 5.0
ETOWAH 5.0
HAMPTON 5.0
CHATTANOOGA 3.0

...VIRGINIA...
ONLEY 14.0
NORFOLK 13.4
FRANKLIN 13.2
SMITHFIELD 13.2
CHESAPEAKE 13.0
HAMPTON 13.0
WAKEFIELD 11.8
NEWPORT NEWS 11.5
WALLOPS ISLAND 11.5
WILLIAMSBURG 9.5
PETERSBURG 6.8

...VERMONT...
LANDGROVE 21.0
NORTH BENNINGTON 20.0
WOODFORD 20.0
ANDOVER 18.0
BALL MOUNTAIN LAKE 18.0
WELLS RIVER 18.0
WHITE RIVER JUNCTION 16.0
DANBY 15.0
SPRINGFIELD 15.0
UNION VILLAGE DAM 11.8
POMFRET 11.5
N HARTLAND RES 11.0
LUDLOW 10.0
WESTMINSTER WEST 10.0
WOODSTOCK 10.0
CORNWALL 9.5
CRAFTSBURY 7.5
CORINTH 7.2
NEWPORT 7.2
BROOKFIELD 2 WSW 6.5
SHEFFIELD 6.0
NORTH UNDERHILL 5.5
BAKERSFIELD 5.0
LYNDONVILLE 5.0
WEST RUTLAND 5.0
HUNTINGTON 4.5
NORTHFIELD 3.3

...WISCONSIN...
KENOSHA 4 SW 8.1
CASSVILLE 8 NE 5.5
WYALUSING 5.2

...WEST VIRGINIA...
TERRA ALTA 10.0
BLUEFIELD 2.0

Friday, December 24, 2010

Global Climate Update


Headline: Unusual Weather pattern Remains Stalled.
Extremely cold air accompanied by heavy snowfall has blanketed much of western Europe. Unusually cold air has also invaded the southeastern U.S. including Florida. With the world attention on these two locations experiencing extreme cold winter conditions, there are also areas that have been experiencing unusual warmth for this time of the year. For example, temperatures in Greenland have been warmer than the SE U.S. and western Europe. The central and eastern Arctic in Canada have also been unusually warm.
A map, produced by the British Met Service shows the temperature anomalies for the globe for the period December 1-20, 2010.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

La Niña Predictions, Dec. 2010 Update


The attached graph produced by the International Research Institute (IRI) shows the various computer model projections of the current La Niña (as of December 16, 2010).

On the graph, anything below the -0.5 line indicates a La Niña phase, and above the +0.5 line indicates the El Niño phase and in between +0.5 and -0.5 would be classified as "neutral". Some of the models have La Niña lingering into next Summer while some models have La Niña ending and a return to "neutral" conditions by next Summer.

There is a huge variation among the models for the early Autumn time period of August-September-October (ASO) 2011 with some models showing a return to the El Niño phase, some indicate a return to neutral conditions and a few models indicate a persistence of La Niña into autumn 2011.

Although there are many variables that can be used in predicting seasonal weather patterns, the existence of a La Niña, or El Niño can play a major role in our ability to produce seasonal outlooks.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

December 1983

The past few weeks have featured well below average temperatures across most of the eastern United States and snow is on the ground as far south as northern Alabama and northern Georgia (as of early today). Around Lincoln, snow cover is somewhat minimal and temperatures, while chilly, aren't much below average and are warmer than last year at this time. But in terms of bone chilling cold, nothing holds a candle to December 1983.

The fun actually started after Thanksgiving when a cold rain turned into heavy snow. Stories of Husker fans getting stranded on Highway 81 upon return from Oklahoma are still told to this day. Snow stayed on the ground through the rest of November and got deeper with successive snows in December, reaching a depth of 15 inches just before Christmas. Temperatures were cold all month but perhaps the cold should be put into 3 categories (inspired by the movie Spaceballs): Cold, Ridiculous Cold, and Ludicrous Cold.

In the cold category are the dates December 1-15 and New Year's Eve when average daily temperatures (average of the high and low) were generally between 15 and 20 degrees. Ridiculous cold goes to December 16-17 and December 26-30 when average daily temperatures were in the single digits. Ludicrous cold goes to the period from December 18-24. In this glorious stretch of weather, the warmest temperature was -2. No, that's not a misprint. The temperature in Lincoln fell below 0 late on December 17 and didn't go above 0 again until Christmas Day. Also during this stretch of Ludicrous cold was a 6 inch snowfall on December 20. The worst day in this stretch is debatable but a strong candidate is Christmas Eve when the high was only -10. Of course, this stretch of Ludicrous cold wasn't just unique to here. Most of the Great Plains and north central states were just as bad, if not worse, in December 1983. The table below shows the monthly average temperature for December 1983, the maximum temperature on December 24, 1983, and the snow depth on Christmas Day 1983.

Topeka KS 14.4 -3 7
Dodge City KS 18.4 1 3
Lincoln NE 8.1 -10 15
Scottsbluff NE 12.4 -7 3
Sioux Falls SD 2.1 -13 12
Rapid City SD 8.1 -13 5
Williston ND -4.5 -20 6
Fargo ND -0.3 -6 10
Duluth MN 1.8 -11 28
Minneapolis MN 3.7 -10 20
Des Moines IA 9.8 -12 9
Moline IL 14 -10 9
Chicago IL 14.3 -11 4
Madison WI 10.8 -8 14
Indianapolis IN 20.1 -7
St. Louis MO 20.5 -5 3


La Niña Winter Temperatures and Precipitation







  • The current La Niña is expected to persist through Winter 2010-11 and into Spring 2011.
  • Although there are many factors that can influence the Winter weather patterns, a La Niña can have a strong influence on our temperatures and precipitation during Winter.
  • The attached maps (produced from data at the Earth System Research Laoratory) are a composite of La Niña Winters that have occurred since the 1950's (November-March: 1954-55, 1955-56, 1964-65, 1970-71, 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-89, 1999-2000). They show the temperature anomalies during La Niña events compared to the 1971-2000 normals.
  • The small areas outlined within each state are known as the "Climate Divisions" which is a better method of evaluating map patterns as opposed to a single statewide value.
  • Please note that these maps show an average of La Niña events and are to be used as guidance for the "most likely" outcome. There will always be exceptions to the average anomaly pattern so do not assume that any given La Niña will look exactly like these map patterns.
  • U.S. Pattern: La Niña events are characterized by drier than normal conditions across the southern U.S. stretching from California to Florida and up into the mid Great Plains and Midwest. And La Niña events are characterized by colder than normal temperatures from California to Washington State and across the norther tier of state to Minnesota and Wisconsin.
  • Nebraska Pattern:La Niña Winters in Nebraska are noted by large extremes in temperature but when averaged out at the end of Winter are near normal. And La Niña Winters in Nebraska are generally drier than normal.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

La Niña and Winter 2010-11 Circulation Outlook


A moderate to strong La Niña currently exists in the Pacific Ocean and it should persist through Spring 2011. It is expected that it will play a significant role in the weather patterns during the Winter of 2010-11.

As noted on the map to the left, the primary jet stream is deflected well to the north with persistent heavy rains and snows in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. and Canada. With Gulf moisture shut off and most of the storm systems entering the Pacific Northwest, drier than normal weather is expected across the SW and Southern U.S. Cold air will accumulate in western Canada and from time to time plunge into the lower 48 states, bringing spells of well below normal temperatures to the Midwest followed by rapid warm ups after each polar plunge. This circulation pattern should produce a "roller coaster' temperature cycle of large swings between well below normal temperatures and above normal temperatures throughout the Winter for much of the Midwest and Great Plains.

Monday, December 13, 2010

Lincoln's First Snowfall of the Season 1948-2010


Headline: December 11, 2010, Snowfall for Lincoln, NE, Was The 9th Latest "First Snowfall of the Snowfall Season" On Record.


The first official snowfall of the 2010-11 snowfall season in Lincoln, NE, occurred on December 11, 2010. Although snow had fallen in southeastern portions of Lincoln as early as November 13, 2010, no snowfall was observed at the "official" Lincoln NWS site in far northwest Lincoln on that date.


We have monthly snowfall totals for Lincoln going back to 1900 but we only have daily data extending back to 1948.

The earliest "First Snowfall" of record was on September 29, 1985 and the latest "First Snowfall" was on December 31, 2006.
The first snowfall of the 2010-11 snowfall season was the 9th latest out of 63 years of data (1948-2010). Ironically, last year, the "First Snowfall" on October 10, 2009, was the 3rd earliest on record.

The attached graph shows the dates of the first snowfalls for each snowfall season from 1948 through 2010.
Additional data and information:

Thursday, December 9, 2010

January-November 2010 U.S. Temperature Anomalies

Despite recent cold and snowy weather this December in the Northeastern U.S., the temperatures for the year in that region of the U.S. are running at record and near record levels

The map to the left shows the temperature anomalies (rankings) for the lower 48 states for the time period January 1 through November 30, 2010.

•The Northeast climate region has experienced persistent warmth through the entire year, resulting in its warmest January-November period on record.
•Six states (New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut and New Jersey) had their warmest year-to-date period on record.
•Based on monthly temperatures averaged from January-November, Florida is the only state in the contiguous United States to experience a temperature that ranked below-normal.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

La Niña Expected to Persist through Winter 2010-11


The attached graph produced by the International Research Institute (IRI) shows the various computer model projections of the current La Niña (as of November 17, 2010).

All of the model projections keep the current La Niña through at least the Spring of 2011. Just over half of the computer models indicate La Niña will strengthen further and peak during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2010-11. On the graph anything below the -0.5 line indicates a La Niña phase, and above the +0.5 line indicates the El Niño phase and in between +0.5 and -0.5 would be classified as "neutral". Some of the models have La Niña lingering into next Summer while some models have La Niña ending and a return to "neutral" by next Summer.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

November 2010 U.S. Climate Update




The month of November 2010 was warm over much of the central U.S. stretching from North Dakota to Texas. Lincoln, NE, home of this Climate Blog averaged 1.0 deg. F above normal for the month of November. Parts of the western 1/3 of the U.S. were slightly below normal as was Florida and parts of the SE U.S.

Most of the U.S. was drier than normal during November 2010 with two exceptions, the area stretching from Louisiana to Ohio and portions of the the Northern Rocky Mountain states. Nebraska was also drier than normal with the only a small area in the Lincoln-Omaha area receiving above normal precipitation.
These maps and others like them can be generated by anyone visiting our High Plains Regional Climate Center website at:





















he High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC) creates daily monthly and seasonal climate maps for the U.S. as well as diffrent regions and individual states. The following two

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Incredible Early Winter cold - Nov. 2010 - A La Nina Pattern


The map shows the morning low temperatures on November 24, 2010.


Note the temperature of -18 F in Wyoming, -21 F in Montana and -33 F in southern Alberta.


Mild temperatures have been the norm this Autumn across the Great Plains with 80 F and 70 F temperatures earlier during the month of November. The cold air has been bottled up in Southern Canada due to the primary jet stream being located further north than normal and blocking the southward movement of this cold air. As a result, the temperatures have continued to plunge in southern Canada reaching levels normally only seen in mid Winter. Some of this bitterly cold air has begun to spill southward into the northern Plains. Ironically, the temperatures remain summer-like in the upper 80's in southern Texas. The temperature range across the Plains is over 110 degrees.
This pattern of an extreme cold airmass across southern Canada and extreme warm airmass across the deep south is typical of La Nina winters. Nebraska, being right in the middle should experience constant contrasts as these two opposing airmasses battle for supremacy this coming winter.








Tuesday, November 23, 2010

White Thanksgiving

I'm dreaming of a White Thanksgiving. Ok, so that's not how the Irving Berlin song goes, but there have been White Thanksgivings in Lincoln. Since 1970, this has happened five times, but the last was in 1993.

*Note: To be considered a White Thanksgiving, there had to be one inch or more of snow on the ground at the time of observation. Thus, a trace of snow does not count. If you count a trace of snow, then the last one was in 2007.

The next question that you may be asking is "Well if we have a White Thanksgiving, then we'll be guaranteed to have a White Christmas right?" Not so much. In fact, the last time Lincoln technically had BOTH a White Thanksgiving and a White Christmas was in 1952. But the average high in this area of the country in late November is still over 40, so it is unusual for a pre-Thanksgiving snow to hang around for more than 4-5 days. But barring a major surprise, the streak of not having both a White Thanksgiving and a White Christmas will continue at least another year.

The Thanksgiving holiday can be quite cold in Lincoln. Those of you who shivered through the OU-NU game in 1993 may well remember a game time temperature in the low 20's. But the coldest Thanksgiving in recent times was in 1985 when a chilly high of 15 was in the middle of an impressive early season cold snap. How impressive was it? Consider that from November 19-December 3 of 1985, the average temperature in Lincoln was 14 and almost every single day featured single digit minimum temperatures. On the other hand, 60 degree weather around Thanksgiving can occur and one only has to go back to last year to find that (it was 67 the day after Thanksgiving last year).

In case you're curious, Lincoln has had a White Christmas approximately 37% of the time in the last 40 years and a White Valentine's Day almost 50% of the time.

Snowfall Statistics

Most of the Region has not seen snow yet and this leaves some people wondering when the latest snowfalls have occurred. The High Plains Regional Climate Center has compiled a list of average, earliest, latest, and season-to-date first snowfalls for selected locations across the Region. (All data derived using products built on the ACIS framework.)

Colorado

Average, Earliest, Latest, and 2010 First Snowfall

Average

Earliest

Latest

2010-2011 Snowfall Season

Period of Analysis

Alamosa

Oct 31

09/03/1961

12/23/1939

Oct 25

1932-2010

Colorado Springs

Oct 25

09/03/1961

01/12/1918

----------

1895-2010

Denver

Oct 18

09/03/1961

01/07/1931

Nov 15

1882-2010

Grand Junction

Nov 17

09/18/1965

01/05/1980

Nov 15

1893-2010

Pueblo

Nov 5

09/17/1971

12/10/1963

----------

1948-2010


Kansas

Average, Earliest, Latest, and 2010 First Snowfall

Average

Earliest

Latest

2010-2011 Snowfall Season

Period of Analysis

Concordia

Nov 21

10/09/1970

12/31/2006

----------

1948-2010

Dodge City

Nov 20

09/21/1995

01/04/1956

----------

1893-2010

Goodland

Nov 1

09/20/1995

01/24/1949

----------

1924-2010

Topeka

Nov 28

10/09/1970

02/10/1923

----------

1887-2010

Wichita

Dec 2

10/22/1996

02/07/1979

----------

1931-2010


Nebraska

Average, Earliest, Latest, and 2010 First Snowfall

Average

Earliest

Latest

2010-2011 Snowfall Season

Period of Analysis

Grand Island

Nov 15

09/20/1995

01/07/1936

----------

1895-2010

Lincoln

Nov 17

09/29/1985

12/31/2006

----------

1948-2010

Norfolk

Nov 9

09/28/1985

01/14/2007

----------

1948-2010

Omaha

Nov 14

10/09/1970

12/31/2006

Nov 12

1885-2010

North Platte

Nov 4

09/20/1995

12/23/1939

----------

1893-2010

Scottsbluff

Oct 23

09/11/1995

12/09/1963

Nov 9

1919-2010

Valentine

Nov 2

09/20/1995

12/10/1962

Nov 11

1889-2010


North Dakota

Average, Earliest, Latest, and 2010 First Snowfall

Average

Earliest

Latest

2010-2011 Snowfall Season

Period of Analysis

Bismarck

Oct 28

09/12/1903

12/14/1999

Oct 26

1886-2010

Fargo

Nov 1

09/04/1933

12/14/1999

Oct 26

1893-2010

Grand Forks

Oct 30

09/17/1991

12/14/1999

Nov 20

1932-2010

Williston

Oct 26

09/02/1961

12/12/1923

Oct 26

1894-2010



South Dakota

Average, Earliest, Latest, and 2010 First Snowfall

Average

Earliest

Latest

2010-2011 Snowfall Season

Period of Analysis

Aberdeen

Nov 5

09/21/1995

01/09/1962

Oct 27

1932-2010

Huron

Nov 6

09/24/1912

12/24/1939

Oct 27

1893-2010

Rapid City

Oct 21

09/13/1970

12/01/2007

Nov 17

1949-2010

Sioux Falls

Nov 6

09/25/1939

01/08/1944

----------

1894-2010


Wyoming

Average, Earliest, Latest, and 2010 First Snowfall

Average

Earliest

Latest

2010-2011 Snowfall Season

Period of Analysis

Casper

Oct 7

09/08/1962

11/18/1953

Nov 9

1940-2010

Cheyenne

Oct 8

09/08/1929

11/20/1900

Oct 25

1883-2010

Lander

Oct 7

09/07/1941

12/07/1914

Nov 9

1911-2010

Moose

Oct 18

09/15/1982

11/25/1999

Oct 25

1959-2010